My Prediction for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic

Friday and Saturday are two of my favorite days of the year. It’s the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, comprised of 14 races, and featuring the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Saturday, approximately 6:30pm eastern on ABC and ESPN).

I have a lot to say, but for those who just want my bets for the Classic, here they are:

$5 Exacta box – Gio Ponti, Einstein, Rip Van Winkle, Richard’s Kid, and Zenyatta – cost: $100

$2 Exacta box – Summer Bird/the five above – cost: $20

$10 Win and Place – Richard’s Kid – cost: $20

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The Classic has shaped up (surprisingly, to me) to be a very interesting race, with a lot of angles to it. I can’t actually tell you who I think will win. It’s too competitive. The five horse exacta box I put together above represents the five horses who I think have the best shot of winning. I also included a backup bet of Summer Bird.  I don’t think Summer Bird will hit the board here.  He’s a superb horse worthy of some really significant praise, but I think he’s too far along in his form cycle to win here. He’s worked very, very hard this summer (harder than any other G1 horse in North America, except perhaps for Gio Ponti), he’s a bit young (he’s still only 3), and this surface switch isn’t favorable for him, in my opinion.  Summer Bird will, if kept in training, probably win this event next year or in 2011. He’s that good. But I think he’s coming into this race tired and overworked, and the hot and heavy Pro-Ride will not favor him on Saturday.  But just in case I’m very wrong, I constructed a backup exacta with him in 1st and 2nd position.

Gio Ponti comes into this race having accomplished enough this summer to be seriously considered Horse of the Year. This is his 6th Group I race in a row, and he won 4 in a row before finishing 2nd in October at 12 furlongs. The cut back in distance to 10 furlongs should help him out, and as a proven turf horse on numerous race tracks, he should (theoretically) take to the Pro-Ride effortlessly. Gio Ponti is the best older horse (male) in North America right now, and he fits into this fields very well. He sits back early, but makes a fairly early move to the front, where he then tries to go out and win it.

Einstein is probably my favorite male horse in training, emotionally. He’s a 7 year-old who really came into his own at age 6 and 7. Helen Pitts-Blasi has done a remarkable job connecting with this horse, and from everything I read, these two are a perfect pair. Importantly (and this cannot be undervalued), Einstein absolutely loved the Pro-Ride in April when he obliterated the field in the Santa Anita Handicap. It wasn’t even close. As they rounded the final turn, Einstein moved to the front and never looked back. The talented, accomplished, and just-retired workhorse Champs Elysees was on his tail, but was never going to catch him. He followed that performance up with an ever more dominating performance on Derby Day in the Turf Classic. Critics will point to Richard’s Kid catching him (effortlessly, to be honest) in the Del Mar Pacific Classic, where Einstein finished 2nd and never had a chance once he was passed. But my counterargument is that was Polytrack, which isn’t Pro-Ride in any way. Einstein loves the turf (18-7-2-1 for $1.5mm) and he loved this course in April. He cannot be counted out.  This will be Einstein’s final race before he is sent to Kentucky for a life at stud.

Rip Van Winkle is the strong, fearsome, intimidating European entry here. Some in the Euro press have dared to call him better than mega horse Sea the Stars (retired to stud just last month). I don’t go that far, as Sea the Stars beat him 3 times this summer, and he had to get away from Sea the Stars to win any races.  But he’s very good. And very fast. And he runs in the front. At the 5/8th’s pole, Rip Van Winkle will be on the lead with Gio Ponti, I think, and the rest of the field is going to try and close on them. And that’s the key to this race. These are Classic horses (literally!) some of whom have 10F speed. Can the closers (and the deep closers) close on Classic pace? That’s the $5mm question.

Richard’s Kid is going to be underbet here, and should represent excellent value at post time. He is the deepest of the closers here, and is bred and trained to run 12F, 14F, or all day. But 10F should be enough for him to hit that incredible closing speed he has. Baffert’s barn is on fire this fall, and this horse has exceeded the public’s expectations, each time at a nice price.  I suspect he’s going to do it again on Saturday (finishing at least 2nd or 3rd).

And that brings us to Zenyatta, the grand dame of this race, and the best horse in training in America for my money. She’s never been past 9F. She’s never faced competition anywhere near this field. She’s never run against colts and horses. But this is her track. She’s training better now, according to the connections, than she ever has. She’s never failed to overcome any challenge thrown at her, sporting a gaudy 13-for-13 record. She’s 17.2 hands, and probably 1100 or 1200 pounds, making her the largest horse in the field. Her stride is unbelievably long, and she covers an enormous amount of ground when she’s all out. She does not have to be a deep closer, and Mike Smith can move her to the front at the top of the turn. And this should be her final race (if she wins, and if they can’t put together a race with Rachel Alexandra at Gulfstream Park in January or February). John Shirreffs should be directing Smith to use her up completely; to let her use every available joule of energy she has to give her a chance to win; to let her go as fast as she’s ever been.   She’s very headstrong, and from my observations, likes to win and likes the adulation that comes from winning. This is her chance for history, and it’s the only chance she’s ever going to have to quiet the naysayers who criticize the fields she’s raced against. Because if she wins here, she’ll make history as the only mare to ever win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

So those are my thoughts on the horses I’m going to bet on.  I’m a bit scared of Girolamo, the Godolphin horse who is relatively cheap but exceptionally well bred (AP Indy on top, Get Lucky out of Mr Prospector on the bottom) and steadily getting better. You’d have to use him in any trifecta or superfecta, I think.  I’m not a believer in Mine That Bird, Quality Road, or Twice Over.  Regal Ransom is a darn good horse, but I don’t like him at all at 10F. Awesome Gem doesn’t belong here (2-for-15 for the last two years) and Colonel John isn’t good enough to come in 1st or 2nd against these foes in my estimation.

If you bet the race, good luck! If you don’t bet the race, try and tune-in and watch it. It might be an incredibly exciting finish!

Catching Up

I’ve been very busy, so let’s catch up!

• I purchased a thoroughbred race horse on Saturday, a 4 year-old brown gelding named Major Danger. I claimed him out of an $8,000 claiming race at Charles Town Races and Slots for my trainer, David Walters. He’ll see the vet this week to make sure he’s in good shape and has the right medication, and then re-training of the horse will begin. With some luck, he’ll be healthy, sound, will train well, and we’ll enter him into his first race under my barn’s silks sometime in the next two or three weeks. I’ll post some pictures when we saddle him in a race for the first time.

• Ed and I had a successful trip to Lenox to claim my dad’s personal effects. We had a lot to do in a very short period of time, and it all went very smoothly.  Along the way, we took U.S. Route 7 through Connecticut’s Litchfield County. As a teenager, I used to visit New Milford almost every weekend to spend time with my Dad. He and his second wife had a weekend house in New Milford.  To the best of my recollection, I hadn’t been to New Milford in 17 years, so driving past it last week was very weird for me. Both my Dad and his second wife have passed, so there was no one to share the memories with.

• While on the trip, my Mom, Ed, and I visited Cassone’s Bakery in Port Chester, NY. I’m pretty sure I ate the most delicious Kaiser Roll I’ve ever tasted. Yummm!

• The Supreme Court of the United States will hear oral arguments tomorrow in U.S. v. Stevens, a fascinating 1st Amendment case which I am excited about. In 1999, a new federal law was enacted that, in part, made it illegal to sell pictures or videos depicting animal cruelty. The respondent, Robert Stevens, was arrested and convicted of violating that law when he marketed dog fighting videos. But the Federal Appeals Court for the 3rd Circuit overturned the conviction (en banc!) as a violation of the 1st Amendment’s enumerated right to free speech. This week’s argument pits the under-experienced Solicitor General, Elena Kagan, versus Patricia Millet of Akin Gump (the publishers of SCOTUSblog). Millet should clean her clock, but I’m rooting for the U.S. here. I think it’s perfectly acceptable for the federal government to pass a law that says you cannot sell videos depicting an illegal act. This case isn’t about dog fighting (although I would hope you wouldn’t argue dog fighting is anything but despicable and reprehensible), it’s about free speech. You can read a lot more about U.S. v. Stevens here.

Big Weekend in Horse Racing

This is a big weekend! Two major events are happening, both of which involve world-class horses.

The Woodward Stakes is on Saturday afternoon at Saratoga. In it, super filly Rachel Alexandra will attempt to make history by being the first 3 year-old filly (heck, the first filly or mare, regardless of age) to beat the males. She’ll be running against 4, 5, and 6 year-old males who are larger (not taller) than she is, and benefit from more developed musculatures. As I understand it (and I’m not an expert on development), female musculatures tend to fully mature by age 5. I am not a big fan of Rachel Alexandra, mostly because I think she’s raced against weak competition and I really dislike her owner (Jess Jackson of Kendall Jackson Wines) and her trainer (Steve Asmussen). But I recognize she has talent, and if she finds a way to beat this field, I’ll get on board the Rachel Alexandra train that will be quickly leaving the Saratoga Train Station.

Rachel Alexandra winning the Preakness Stakes

The NY Racing Authority handicapper has installed Rachel Alexandra as the 1:2 favorite. Second on the morning line is Bullsbay, a curious horse who has risen steadily in the rankings this year. I like his rider, Jeremy Rose, and his trainer, Graham Motion, but I was very surprised by Bullsbay’s 2nd in the Stephen Foster Handicap and by his win in the Whitney. Macho Again and Asiatic Boy are the others to watch in this race.

The Pacific Classic is Del Mar’s richest race each year with its $1 million purse. One of my favorite horses of all-time, 7 year-old Einstein, is competing in this year’s edition on Sunday afternoon. Interestingly, Einstein and his trainer, Helen Pitts-Blasi, are both making their Del Mar debuts. I would like to have been there earlier this week when Pitts and Einstein got on the track for the first time. Del Mar is a classic race track with a rich history and tradition. It’s one of North America’s race track meccas, and I was very glad to make my pilgrimage earlier this year. A lifelong horsewoman like Pitts, and a world-class horse like Einstein, getting on the track early one morning, both looking around, taking in the sights for the first time … that would have been something to see!

Einstein (who is not in good form, having not competed well recently in the Stephen Foster on the Churchill Downs dirt and in the Arlington Millions on the hot, soft Illinois turf) has his work cut out for him. He is going up against Informed (winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup), Rail Trip (a multiple stakes winner who is scary good from the front of the field), Global Hunter, Awesome Gem (who was taken out of his last race when he inexplicably couldn’t hold the first turn and ran right to the far rail), and two very interesting horses. Richard’s Kid is bred to run all day, and is just now rounding into stakes form. He’s been pointed to this race since the get-go, and looks ready to bust open his career.

Colonel John

Colonel John, however, is the hardest decision facing handicappers, I think.  Colonel John, last year’s Travers winner, looked amazing in the Wickerr Stakes on July 31st, a race I witnessed. That race has been called the “race of the meet” by the Del Mar regulars. It was a one mile turf race, and Colonel John looked like a world beater, finishing in 1:32 and change. But I think Colonel John is at his best on the turf — not the main track — and the Pacific Classic is run on the main track. I don’t think he’s a world beater off the turf, and I’m not sure what to do with him here. As always, I’ll be rooting for Einstein.

Um …

Yeah, so … whoops!  Zenyatta runs NEXT weekend at Del Mar, not this weekend, so my post a few posts down from this, in which I excitedly ponder the prospect of meeting one of my favorite horses is, sadly, quite mistaken. Not quite sure how I got mixed up. Oh well! I’m still going to go tomorrow morning and have a great time.

I’m Going to Visit Zenyatta!

If my dad were still with us, he’d be very jealous right now (actually, he’d say, “I’m coming with you!”). Next week I’m headed to Del Mar, California (suburb of San Diego) to visit the race track there, and guess who’s scheduled to run on Saturday? Zenyatta! I turned my dad on to Zenyatta a few months ago. She’s one of the best female race horses of my generation. She’s an undefeated 11-for-11, but what really makes her such a superstar is how she wins.  When the gates open, she lets the horses all get in front of her, and the leader will often open up a 10 or 15 length lead on her.  She plods along quietly, and then as they start the final turn, she says, “OK, I’m ready to win now”, and opens up fully. She’s such a big horse (17 or 18 hands high, with a rump described as a truck) that her stride is monstrous. She covers so much ground with each stride, so when she’s in full stride, look out, because she’s going WAY faster than every other horse on the track!

It’s fun living in the YouTube age, because all 11 of her races are available there.  Her biggest win was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, shown on ESPN, and narrated by the dulcet tones of track announcer Trevor Denman.

She’s running on the 1st in the Clement Hirsch Handicap, which she won last year impressively.

I can’t wait to see her in person. Zenyatta, baby, here I come!