My Prediction for Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic

Friday and Saturday are two of my favorite days of the year. It’s the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, comprised of 14 races, and featuring the Breeders’ Cup Classic (Saturday, approximately 6:30pm eastern on ABC and ESPN).

I have a lot to say, but for those who just want my bets for the Classic, here they are:

$5 Exacta box – Gio Ponti, Einstein, Rip Van Winkle, Richard’s Kid, and Zenyatta – cost: $100

$2 Exacta box – Summer Bird/the five above – cost: $20

$10 Win and Place – Richard’s Kid – cost: $20

–

The Classic has shaped up (surprisingly, to me) to be a very interesting race, with a lot of angles to it. I can’t actually tell you who I think will win. It’s too competitive. The five horse exacta box I put together above represents the five horses who I think have the best shot of winning. I also included a backup bet of Summer Bird.  I don’t think Summer Bird will hit the board here.  He’s a superb horse worthy of some really significant praise, but I think he’s too far along in his form cycle to win here. He’s worked very, very hard this summer (harder than any other G1 horse in North America, except perhaps for Gio Ponti), he’s a bit young (he’s still only 3), and this surface switch isn’t favorable for him, in my opinion.  Summer Bird will, if kept in training, probably win this event next year or in 2011. He’s that good. But I think he’s coming into this race tired and overworked, and the hot and heavy Pro-Ride will not favor him on Saturday.  But just in case I’m very wrong, I constructed a backup exacta with him in 1st and 2nd position.

Gio Ponti comes into this race having accomplished enough this summer to be seriously considered Horse of the Year. This is his 6th Group I race in a row, and he won 4 in a row before finishing 2nd in October at 12 furlongs. The cut back in distance to 10 furlongs should help him out, and as a proven turf horse on numerous race tracks, he should (theoretically) take to the Pro-Ride effortlessly. Gio Ponti is the best older horse (male) in North America right now, and he fits into this fields very well. He sits back early, but makes a fairly early move to the front, where he then tries to go out and win it.

Einstein is probably my favorite male horse in training, emotionally. He’s a 7 year-old who really came into his own at age 6 and 7. Helen Pitts-Blasi has done a remarkable job connecting with this horse, and from everything I read, these two are a perfect pair. Importantly (and this cannot be undervalued), Einstein absolutely loved the Pro-Ride in April when he obliterated the field in the Santa Anita Handicap. It wasn’t even close. As they rounded the final turn, Einstein moved to the front and never looked back. The talented, accomplished, and just-retired workhorse Champs Elysees was on his tail, but was never going to catch him. He followed that performance up with an ever more dominating performance on Derby Day in the Turf Classic. Critics will point to Richard’s Kid catching him (effortlessly, to be honest) in the Del Mar Pacific Classic, where Einstein finished 2nd and never had a chance once he was passed. But my counterargument is that was Polytrack, which isn’t Pro-Ride in any way. Einstein loves the turf (18-7-2-1 for $1.5mm) and he loved this course in April. He cannot be counted out.  This will be Einstein’s final race before he is sent to Kentucky for a life at stud.

Rip Van Winkle is the strong, fearsome, intimidating European entry here. Some in the Euro press have dared to call him better than mega horse Sea the Stars (retired to stud just last month). I don’t go that far, as Sea the Stars beat him 3 times this summer, and he had to get away from Sea the Stars to win any races.  But he’s very good. And very fast. And he runs in the front. At the 5/8th’s pole, Rip Van Winkle will be on the lead with Gio Ponti, I think, and the rest of the field is going to try and close on them. And that’s the key to this race. These are Classic horses (literally!) some of whom have 10F speed. Can the closers (and the deep closers) close on Classic pace? That’s the $5mm question.

Richard’s Kid is going to be underbet here, and should represent excellent value at post time. He is the deepest of the closers here, and is bred and trained to run 12F, 14F, or all day. But 10F should be enough for him to hit that incredible closing speed he has. Baffert’s barn is on fire this fall, and this horse has exceeded the public’s expectations, each time at a nice price.  I suspect he’s going to do it again on Saturday (finishing at least 2nd or 3rd).

And that brings us to Zenyatta, the grand dame of this race, and the best horse in training in America for my money. She’s never been past 9F. She’s never faced competition anywhere near this field. She’s never run against colts and horses. But this is her track. She’s training better now, according to the connections, than she ever has. She’s never failed to overcome any challenge thrown at her, sporting a gaudy 13-for-13 record. She’s 17.2 hands, and probably 1100 or 1200 pounds, making her the largest horse in the field. Her stride is unbelievably long, and she covers an enormous amount of ground when she’s all out. She does not have to be a deep closer, and Mike Smith can move her to the front at the top of the turn. And this should be her final race (if she wins, and if they can’t put together a race with Rachel Alexandra at Gulfstream Park in January or February). John Shirreffs should be directing Smith to use her up completely; to let her use every available joule of energy she has to give her a chance to win; to let her go as fast as she’s ever been.   She’s very headstrong, and from my observations, likes to win and likes the adulation that comes from winning. This is her chance for history, and it’s the only chance she’s ever going to have to quiet the naysayers who criticize the fields she’s raced against. Because if she wins here, she’ll make history as the only mare to ever win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

So those are my thoughts on the horses I’m going to bet on.  I’m a bit scared of Girolamo, the Godolphin horse who is relatively cheap but exceptionally well bred (AP Indy on top, Get Lucky out of Mr Prospector on the bottom) and steadily getting better. You’d have to use him in any trifecta or superfecta, I think.  I’m not a believer in Mine That Bird, Quality Road, or Twice Over.  Regal Ransom is a darn good horse, but I don’t like him at all at 10F. Awesome Gem doesn’t belong here (2-for-15 for the last two years) and Colonel John isn’t good enough to come in 1st or 2nd against these foes in my estimation.

If you bet the race, good luck! If you don’t bet the race, try and tune-in and watch it. It might be an incredibly exciting finish!

We Interrupt this Program …

Dennis Abrams from Publishing Perspectives has started a new project: to read all 3,000 pages and 1.25 million words of the “Mt. Everest of literature”, Marcel Proust’s multi-volume “In Search of Lost Time” (which you may know as “Remembrance of Times Past”, a mistranslated title for the work).

Here’s the kicker: he’s reading it, and discussing it, at a pace of 15 pages a day.  So that makes it very accessible for those of us with working lives, families, or other pursuits that keep us from reading for extended periods.

If you’d like to join in, he’s blogging here. You can pick up your copy of the Lydia Davis translation of the first volume, Swann’s Way, at Amazon.  The first 15 pages will be discussed on Monday, November 2nd.

Three New Books on My Nightstand

Hi, my name is David, and I’m addicted to really good contemporary fiction! My three latest purchases (thank you Amazon Prime!), waiting in line behind Philip Roth:

Zora Neale Hurston – Their Eyes Were Watching God

It’s a book of monumental importance in the genre of 20th century literature. More than just a member of the Harlem   Renaissance school, Hurston’s stories are an integral part of understanding black culture in America in the early 20th century. Her stories aren’t about blacks trying to live in a world dominated by whites. They’re about blacks living, working, and loving other blacks.

Per Petterson – Out Stealing Horses

Translated from the Norwegian into English, “Out Stealing Horses” is the story of an older man taking a walk who suddenly has long-buried memories of his childhood. I found this book through my favorite fiction blog, “The Millions”  (I still don’t understand why it’s called that). They published a list last month of the best books of the first decade of the 21st century.  The list (actually two lists; one from “the pros”, one from The Millions readers) generated a lot of discussion, and in turn, a lot of good book ideas.

John Updike – The Maple Stories

It’s not Rabbit Angstrom. It’s not even a novel. It’s a re-print of an obscure set of short stories Updike wrote about a young married couple, from the time they get married until they’re grandparents. They’re vignettes from a life imagined. And it sounds fascinating. It starts with the story “Snowing in Greenwich Village”, ends with “Grandparenting”, and in-between, there are 16 short stories about our couple and their lives.

Appreciation: Financial Times

One of the things that disturbs me most about modern journalism is the emphasis on soft news. Not a day goes by where CNN.com or NYTimes.com or other bona fide journalism sites report on a plethora of stories involving Hollywood celebrities and their run-ins with law enforcement or health issues or other infidelities. And I could not care less. I refuse to click on stories about them. And I like Hollywood! I just think the private lives of famous people should remain, indeed, private.

One of the other things that disturbs me about modern journalism in the U.S. is the lack of reporting on the rest of the world. Just a few short years of international travel taught me that there is a gigantic world out there, very little of which revolves around what’s going on in the U.S.

The remedy to these (and other) concerns is a thin little salmon-colored newspaper daily called “Financial Times” (or as it’s known, FT). It is a newspaper published in the United States with articles written by journalists across the world (and very rarely based in the U.S.).  It reports on news stories (political, social, and yes, economic) from all over the world, with an emphasis on journalistic objectivity. It really tries very hard to remain impartial, belying no bias. Most of the time it succeeds, and yes, sometimes it fails.  But it keeps trying, each and every time it publishes an article.

The stories are sometimes brief (the lead today was a scant 6 paragraphs). Sometimes they are long (each front section has at least one feature article that takes up the entire page). Always they are well written and well-researched (as best a daily newspaper can, reasonably, I think).

I learn about Pakistan and Iran, sure, but I also learn about Cuba (trying to end food subsidies for its population), Mexico (trying to put an end to locally-established banks with illegal foreign ownership interest), Kenya (fighting government corruption), and many, many other countries and stories from around the world, which would never make the cut in the New York Times (our country’s best, most well-rounded newspaper, for my money).

The paper also tries to keep it real, publishing stories about fashion and the arts and movies and events which would appeal to its readers, and have nothing to do with the banking crisis or health care.

It is, in short, the perfect newspaper for me right now, and I’m thankful to have received an offer to subscribe to 6 issues a week of home delivery for $45 for 6 months (the regular rate is something like $300 for 6 months). I used to just read it when I transited airports. Now I get to enjoy it, in all its salmon glory, every week.  And I’m loving it!

In Memoriam: Myra

I loved you so much.

You were curious and inquisitive,

Brave and daring,

and so loving.

You followed me everywhere I went,

loyally and lovingly.

You were my My My and I loved you with all my heart.

When I first rescued you and your sister,

you were the one to come say hi first.

You were the one who slept with me that second night,

and forever after.

You were the one to greet me first every night

upon returning home from the day.

You, my beloved, were the one who woke me up,

in the middle of the night,

as you played in the dark,

freely.

I loved you so much,

little My My.

I will miss you in my heart forever.